NATO Turns the Tide on Russia’s Ammo Production Advantage

UPDATE: NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte announced a significant shift in the alliance’s ammunition production capabilities, stating that NATO is finally “turning the tide” against Russia‘s longstanding advantage. Speaking at a defense industry forum in Bucharest, Romania on Thursday, Rutte revealed that NATO is now producing ammunition “more than we have done in decades.”

This urgent update marks a pivotal moment in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, where NATO countries have struggled to match Russian artillery output. Just five months ago, Rutte warned that Russia was producing four times as much ammunition as NATO despite the alliance’s economy being 25 times larger.

“We are already turning the tide on ammunition,” Rutte declared, a statement that reflects newfound optimism within NATO. The alliance has faced criticism for lagging behind in artillery production, crucial for supporting Ukraine amidst a protracted war of attrition against Russian forces.

Rutte’s comments signal a major turnaround from previous assessments of NATO’s ammunition shortfalls. He indicated that the alliance is ramping up production capabilities, with dozens of new production lines either opening or expanding across member nations.

“Until recently, Russia was producing more ammunition than all NATO allies put together. But not anymore,” Rutte emphasized.

The urgency for increased ammunition production is underscored by NATO countries like Poland, Germany, and the UK, which have invested heavily in local industries to enhance shell manufacturing. Over a dozen factories have been established in Europe over the past two years to meet escalating demands, particularly for the critical 155mm artillery shells being sent to Ukraine.

However, experts warn that ramping up production will take time. Some companies anticipate that full capacity to meet current demand will not be achieved until 2026 or later. The US military, for instance, had originally aimed to produce 100,000 shells per month by October but has now postponed that goal to mid-2026.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian estimates indicate that Russia produced approximately 3.8 million artillery shells in 2024 alone, averaging around 310,000 shells per month. This highlights the critical need for NATO to not only increase production but also secure reliable supply chains for essential components.

Key elements for artillery shell production include propellant and explosive materials, which have faced significant supply chain challenges. Nitrocellulose, a compound vital for propellant, is currently in short supply, complicating efforts to ramp up production.

As NATO moves forward with its ambitious plans, the international community watches closely, recognizing the potential implications for the balance of power in Europe. The alliance’s ability to match or exceed Russian production capabilities could influence the course of the conflict in Ukraine and beyond.

Stay tuned for further updates as this situation develops. NATO’s progress in overcoming Russia’s ammunition advantage will be pivotal in shaping the future of military engagement in Europe.