Investors Anticipate Fed Rate Cut as Bitcoin Hovers Near $90.5K

Bitcoin is trading near $90,549 as investors position themselves for a potential 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve during its upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on December 9-10, 2025. Market sentiment has shifted positively, with major financial institutions aligning their expectations regarding this key monetary policy decision.

The probability of a rate cut has been bolstered by recent market assessments, with platforms like Polymarket estimating a 94% chance of the reduction and the CME FedWatch Tool indicating an 87.4% likelihood. This growing confidence comes as banks like Standard Chartered join JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Nomura in forecasting a cut, following a series of mixed signals from the U.S. economy.

Major Banks Align Ahead of FOMC Decision

According to Reuters, Standard Chartered has revised its outlook based on recent economic data that remains ambiguous, largely influenced by disruptions stemming from the recent U.S. government shutdown. The bank posits that a modest “insurance cut” could counteract the effects of slowing growth. While the sentiment is cautious, Standard Chartered believes that a rate cut is slightly more probable than a pause at the forthcoming FOMC meeting.

This consensus among major banks has created a robust expectation for the rate decision. Nomura anticipates a narrowly divided vote, suggesting that certain Federal Reserve officials may oppose a cut, while at least one member could advocate for a more substantial 50-basis-point reduction. Looking further into the future, Nomura also predicts additional rate cuts could occur in 2026 if there is a change in leadership at the Federal Reserve, with Kevin Hassett, a senior economic adviser, identified as a leading candidate for a new chair position.

Market Impact and Future Expectations

Investors are acutely focused on the upcoming FOMC meeting, where the Federal Reserve is expected to announce its latest policy decisions. A 25-basis-point cut would mark the third reduction of 2025, impacting not only Bitcoin but also other risk assets such as Ethereum as traders adjust their strategies in anticipation of a shift in monetary policy.

While the outcome is significant, market participants are also looking for guidance on future policy direction. Fed officials are likely to maintain a data-dependent approach, avoiding definitive forecasts about subsequent actions. Crypto analysts note that the Federal Reserve’s recent softer policy stance has already contributed to more favorable financial conditions. The Fed concluded its quantitative tightening earlier this month and injected $13.5 billion in liquidity through overnight repo operations.

Analyst André Chalegre points out that such conditions typically attract institutional interest in Bitcoin, although the effects of rate cuts on prices may not be immediate. As the market awaits clarity from the Federal Reserve, the interplay between interest rates and cryptocurrency values continues to be a focal point for investors.