Honeywell Forecasts Record Business Jet Deliveries Over Next Decade

Honeywell has projected that demand for new business jets will soar to record levels over the next decade, defying expectations of a decline as commercial air travel resumes following the Coronavirus Pandemic. The aerospace company anticipates delivering approximately 8,500 new business jets with a total projected value of $283 billion. This forecast, published in Honeywell’s 34th annual Global Business Aviation Outlook on October 13, 2023, represents the highest estimate in the company’s history.

The report indicates a significant shift in the private aviation market, with anticipated growth of 5% in new jet deliveries by 2026. Current operators and potential buyers are increasingly prioritizing performance over cost, with 91% of survey respondents planning to fly as much or more in 2026 than they did in 2025. According to Ben Driggs, Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer at Honeywell Aerospace, “More people are flying in business aviation than pre-COVID… Those hours have continued to increase at a much higher level since 2019, so it appears like people are really staying engaged with business aviation.”

Growing Demand for Private Aviation

The surge in private jet travel can be attributed to various factors, including the rise of jet card services offered by companies like Flexjet and NetJets. These services have made private flying more accessible and appealing to a broader clientele. The ongoing demand for air charters has compelled operators to expand their fleets urgently to meet this trend. Fractional ownership models have also contributed significantly to the rising sales figures, alongside private owners and specialized operators.

Interestingly, the U.S. Air Force is exploring the use of business jets for aerial refueling, as it seeks to modernize its aging fleet. This consideration highlights the evolving role of business aviation in both commercial and military sectors.

The list of manufacturers reliant on Honeywell systems includes industry giants such as Bombardier, Gulfstream, Cessna/Textron Aviation, Embraer, Dassault, and Pilatus. Bombardier is set to launch its new Global 8000 series, capitalizing on the resurgence of private flying post-COVID. Gulfstream is also preparing to introduce a successor to its highly-regarded G280 model.

Shifts in Fleet Dynamics

Honeywell’s outlook indicates that fractional fleets have experienced over 65% growth since 2019, reaching around 1,300 aircraft in service by 2025. Operators are utilizing their jets more than in previous years, with fractional and private operators leading in flight hours. Currently, light, midsize, and super midsize jets account for approximately 80% of the fractional fleets.

North America is expected to receive about 70% of the new jets in the coming years. Presently, 17% of North American operators have aircraft on order, with the region commanding 62% of the global business jet fleet. Recent legislation, such as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), has further stimulated sales by allowing business jet costs to be deducted from federal taxes in the year of delivery.

While cost remains a consideration for many buyers, an increasing number are focusing on performance, safety features, and advanced technology, such as fly-by-wire avionics. Prospective customers are placing greater emphasis on customer support and the overall value of new aircraft compared to pre-owned options.

This robust forecast from Honeywell reflects a resilient and evolving business aviation market, suggesting sustained growth and an increasing appetite for private jet travel in the years ahead.