Gaza Ceasefire Talks Reach Critical Juncture Amid Hostage Issues

Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have entered a crucial phase as the body of the last Israeli hostage remains unrecovered. This situation is pivotal in advancing President Donald Trump‘s 20-point ceasefire plan. Although the return of hostages is a significant element, major challenges persist that could hinder the transition to the second phase of negotiations, aimed at preventing a resurgence of violence.

The final hostage, Ran Gvili, a 24-year-old police officer killed during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, is yet to be found, complicating the negotiations. Trump indicated last week that phase two would begin “pretty soon,” but did not provide a specific timeline. According to Axios, the White House hopes to announce this second phase before Christmas, which includes the establishment of a new governance structure for Gaza.

Details of the Ceasefire Plan

Phase two of Trump’s plan involves establishing a new governing mechanism in Gaza, disarming Hamas, and deploying an International Stabilization Force (ISF) to replace the Israel Defense Forces currently operating in parts of the region. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, speaking at the Doha Forum, described the discussions as being at a “critical” moment and emphasized the need for a full withdrawal of Israeli forces to restore stability in Gaza.

Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty echoed this sentiment, stating that the ISF must be deployed “as soon as possible.” Norway’s Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide warned that the current ceasefire cannot endure for much longer without significant progress. Since the ceasefire took effect on October 10, 20 living hostages and the remains of 27 others have been returned to Israel, but the recovery of Gvili’s remains remains a pressing issue.

As part of the ceasefire agreement, Israel has agreed to halt its military operations in Gaza. However, violence persists, with Israeli airstrikes resulting in over 350 fatalities in the region since the ceasefire began, raising the death toll in Gaza to over 70,000, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. While the first phase included commitments to increase humanitarian aid, reports indicate that the number of aid trucks entering Gaza has not met the agreed target of 600 per day.

Challenges Ahead in Negotiations

Analysts warn that the second phase of the ceasefire plan could face significant obstacles. Dr. H.A. Hellyer, a senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, noted the complexities involved in disarming Hamas, suggesting that the group’s control over Gaza complicates military intervention. He remarked, “Negotiators are trying to square circles that simply cannot be squared,” highlighting the difficulty of enforcing disarmament without local cooperation.

Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan confirmed that discussions around the ISF’s mandate and rules of engagement are ongoing. He expressed optimism that the deployment of the ISF could pave the way for further progress. However, concerns remain regarding the lack of state support for sending forces into Gaza, a sentiment echoed by Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics. Gerges described the current situation as an “illusion,” asserting that what is termed a ceasefire does not reflect the ongoing violence faced by civilians.

As the international community watches closely, the path ahead for Gaza’s ceasefire remains fraught with challenges. Without resolution to the hostage situation and the establishment of a credible governance structure, the prospects for lasting peace may continue to elude negotiators. The next few weeks will be critical in determining whether the ceasefire can transition to a sustainable peace framework in the region.