Russia Faces Soaring Costs for Chinese Goods Amid Sanctions

Russia is experiencing a significant increase in costs for imported goods from China, particularly those subject to international sanctions. A recent report from the Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies indicates that the price Russia pays for sanctioned products from China has surged by 87% between 2021 and 2024. In contrast, prices of similar goods from other countries have only risen by 9% during the same period.

The findings highlight the increasing economic imbalance in the relationship between Russia and China, which was publicly declared as having “no limits” in early 2022, shortly before Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. As Moscow seeks to mitigate the impact of Western sanctions, it is becoming increasingly reliant on Beijing for essential supplies, yet at a steep price.

Rising Costs and Critical Imports

Specific examples underscore this trend. For instance, the price of Chinese ball bearings, which are critical industrial components, saw a substantial increase. The value of Chinese ball-bearing exports to Russia rose by 76% from 2021 to 2024, even as the quantity of these exports fell by 13%. This indicates that the unit price effectively doubled. Similarly, prices for tapered roller bearings nearly quadrupled during the same timeframe. Both types of bearings are essential for various industries and could potentially be utilized in Russia’s military sector.

The Bank of Finland concluded that these findings demonstrate the effectiveness of trade sanctions in restricting Russia’s access to vital goods. Notably, Turkey has also leveraged the situation, with Turkish export prices for sanctioned goods to Russia increasing by 25% to 55% compared to other exports.

Overall, the price of sanctioned products in Russia is now 40% higher than non-sanctioned items, revealing the financial strain imposed by international sanctions and the limited options available to Russia.

Changing Trade Dynamics

In addition, a separate analysis from Capital Economics reported that total bilateral trade between Russia and China fell by 9% in the first nine months of 2025 compared to the previous year. This decline follows a period during which trade more than doubled between 2020 and 2024. Currently, China represents 30% of Russia’s goods exports and 50% of its imports. In contrast, Russia accounts for only 3% of China’s goods exports and 5% of its imports.

Despite the apparent economic ties, Chinese firms remain cautious about expanding their supply chains in Russia, primarily due to fears of potential repercussions from Western sanctions. Foreign direct investment from China in Russia has also remained limited.

Analysts from Capital Economics emphasize that the Russia-China relationship is asymmetrical. China holds a more significant economic advantage over Russia, which is increasingly reliant on the partnership for essential goods. The report suggests that Russia’s needs from China exceed what Beijing is currently willing to provide.

As Russia grapples with these challenges, the Kremlin has reportedly proposed business deals with the United States as part of discussions aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine and lifting sanctions. Meanwhile, Russia’s wartime economy is facing significant obstacles. Production bottlenecks, labor shortages, reduced government spending, and the lack of access to Western technology are compounding the difficulties.

According to Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center and former advisor to the Russian central bank, overcoming these barriers would require a substantial shift in Moscow’s approach. She noted that to produce significantly more military equipment or recruit additional soldiers, Russia would need to adopt a more comprehensive wartime strategy, akin to the mobilization efforts seen during World War II.

The evolving dynamics of Russia’s relationship with China, coupled with the economic impact of sanctions and production challenges, underscore the complexities facing Moscow as it navigates these turbulent waters.