Chiefs Stumble Against Broncos, Face Playoff Uncertainty

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered a disappointing defeat against the Denver Broncos on November 12, 2025, losing 22-19 after kicker Will Lutz successfully converted a 35-yard field goal. The loss marked the Chiefs’ fifth consecutive defeat in one-score games this season, raising significant concerns about their playoff prospects. With a record of 5-5, the Chiefs find themselves in a precarious position, currently sitting ninth in the AFC standings.

The game had a familiar feel for Broncos fans, as Lutz’s kick recalled a similar moment from the previous year when he secured a victory over the Chiefs. That season, a critical block by linebacker Leo Chenal preserved a 19-17 win for Kansas City. In stark contrast, this year’s team has struggled to maintain its winning momentum, particularly in closely contested matches. Whereas the 2024 Chiefs set an NFL record with ten victories in games decided by seven points or fewer, the current squad has faltered under similar pressures.

Losing to the Buffalo Bills in Week 9 raised alarms, but many believed the bye week would allow coach Andy Reid to recalibrate the team’s strategy. The Chiefs were facing a Broncos team missing its star cornerback, Pat Surtain II, and were expected to take advantage of the opportunity to reclaim their position in the division. Instead, Kansas City finds itself trailing three and a half games behind Denver and losing crucial tiebreakers to both the Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers.

Chiefs’ Playoff Chances Dwindle

The Chiefs’ playoff picture has turned grim, with their chances of missing the postseason now at 44.6%, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The current wild-card spots are occupied by teams that have all defeated the Chiefs this season, including the Bills, Chargers, and Jacksonville Jaguars. Kansas City’s record in the AFC this season has plummeted to 2-4, highlighting their struggles in conference play.

As the Chiefs prepare to face the Indianapolis Colts, who currently lead the AFC South with an 8-2 record, the urgency to turn the season around has never been greater. The Chiefs’ decline is particularly concerning given their storied history of success, which has included nine consecutive AFC West titles. A January without playoff football in Kansas City is now a looming possibility.

Despite the alarming results, there are indicators suggesting that the Chiefs’ underlying performance may not be as dire as their record implies. Statistical analyses reveal that the current squad possesses a superior point differential compared to last season, averaging 7.3 points per win versus 6.1 points per win in 2024. This discrepancy highlights their ability to dominate in victories, even as they struggle to close out tight contests.

Analyzing the Chiefs’ Performance

The Chiefs’ offensive metrics remain robust. They rank third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, compared to 11th last season. Their defense, while not perfect, has shown improvement, moving from 15th in EPA per play to 10th. Nevertheless, the Chiefs are grappling with a disturbing trend: they have been unable to consistently convert critical opportunities into wins.

Patrick Mahomes, often lauded as one of the league’s elite quarterbacks, has faced criticism for his performance this season, particularly in high-pressure situations. In the recent game against the Broncos, Mahomes had a chance to lead a game-winning drive but ultimately failed to capitalize, resulting in a three-and-out. Past games have shown similar patterns, where the offense has faltered in crucial moments.

Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s play-calling has also come under scrutiny. The Chiefs’ blitz has been less effective this season, dropping from ninth to last in pressure rate against opposing quarterbacks. Additionally, the team has struggled with special teams, with crucial missed kicks and blocked attempts contributing to their woes.

As the Chiefs navigate the remainder of the season, the question of whether they can recover and secure a playoff berth looms large. The upcoming matches against the Colts and other divisional rivals may provide critical opportunities for redemption. With a schedule that includes several winnable games, the Chiefs are not entirely out of contention, but the path forward requires improvement in both execution and results.

While it may seem improbable for a team led by a quarterback of Mahomes’ caliber to miss the playoffs, history reveals that even great quarterbacks have faced struggles. As the Chiefs look to regain their footing, fans and analysts alike will be watching closely to see if they can turn their fortunes around and return to the postseason.