Borneo Elections Challenge Anwar Ibrahim’s Government Stability

Elections in the Malaysian state of Sabah on November 29, 2023, have resulted in significant losses for Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, as local parties gained control of the state parliament. These elections raise concerns about the government’s stability and the broader implications for Malaysia’s ethno-political landscape. While these local parties support Anwar at the federal level, their victories reflect a growing demand for greater autonomy and local governance in the region.

The election saw Sabah-centric parties securing an impressive 82 percent of the seats in the state assembly, while traditional parties from the Malaysian Peninsula managed to win only one seat each. This outcome signals a shift in political sentiment in Sabah, where a strong “Sabah for Sabahans” ethos has emerged. The election results come as the nation anticipates general elections by 2028, making this a crucial moment for Anwar’s administration.

Historically, Sabah and Sarawak, the other Malaysian state on Borneo, have maintained distinct identities separate from the mainland. These states joined Malaysia in 1963, six years after the country gained independence, and have often felt marginalized by the central government’s policies. Sabah, in particular, has the highest poverty rate among Malaysian states, and residents have long voiced concerns over being overlooked in national politics.

The recent elections underscore a shift in power dynamics. The fall of the Barisan Nasional coalition in 2018 has led to increased instability, with East Malaysian parties frequently acting as kingmakers in the federal government. Currently, the federal government holds a bare majority of seven seats in parliament, heavily relying on the support of these regional parties.

A pressing issue for Sabah has been the demand for a significant payout based on a constitutional guarantee that entitles the state to 40 percent of federal revenue collected within its borders. This arrangement was largely ignored from 1974 to 2021, but recent court rulings ordered the federal government to pay back decades of owed revenue. Anwar’s administration has opted not to appeal the ruling, likely to avoid alienating public sentiment in Sabah.

Meanwhile, Sarawak has taken bolder steps towards self-governance, establishing a state oil company and seeking to expand its control over areas such as health and education. The two states have already secured a constitutional amendment that strengthens their special status, with further demands for guaranteed parliamentary representation on the horizon.

The electoral results also reflect broader regional trends, with many local parties capitalizing on the discontent felt towards the federal government. The question remains: how far will Anwar’s government go in making concessions to maintain stability before it feels compelled to take a firmer stance?

In related regional news, the Myanmar junta recently granted clemency to nearly 10,000 political prisoners, in a move interpreted as an effort to facilitate participation in upcoming elections scheduled for December 28, 2023. This amnesty is seen against the backdrop of ongoing political unrest, with many critics expressing skepticism about the legitimacy of the upcoming elections.

As Southeast Asia grapples with various challenges, including severe flooding that has affected thousands and political tensions in multiple countries, the implications of the recent elections in Sabah resonate beyond Malaysia, highlighting the fragile balance of power in the region.