Rose Byrne Emerges as Potential Best Actress Surprise at Oscars 2026

The race for Best Actress at the upcoming 2026 Oscars has intensified, with Jessie Buckley viewed as the frontrunner due to her compelling performance in a widely acclaimed film. Yet, the possibility of an upset remains, particularly in favor of Rose Byrne, a first-time Oscar nominee for her role in Mary Bronstein’s dramedy, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. This film, produced by A24, has garnered significant attention, allowing Byrne to emerge as a serious contender.

Byrne portrays a mother grappling with emotional turmoil while caring for an ill child. Her performance was initially met with skepticism regarding its potential for an Oscar nomination, but she has since garnered robust support from industry peers. Friends and colleagues, including Seth Rogen, who starred alongside her in Neighbors and Platonic, have rallied behind her during her Oscar campaign. Rogen noted in Vanity Fair that Byrne’s ability to balance normalcy with the demands of acting is exceptional, calling her performance “fearless and very fun.”

As the awards season progresses, Byrne has received accolades from critics in both New York and Los Angeles, and she won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Musical or Comedy. Despite this recognition, Buckley has dominated the precursor awards, including the Golden Globe, the Critics’ Choice Award, and the BAFTA, establishing herself as the clear favorite. Her film has also received eight nominations from the Academy, including Best Picture.

Historical Context and Upset Potential

The Best Actress category has a history of surprise winners, making it a unique space within the Oscars. Notable upsets include Olivia Colman winning in 2019 for The Favourite against Glenn Close, and Frances McDormand capturing the award in 2021 for Nomadland over Viola Davis. Such instances highlight that, while Buckley may seem like the obvious choice, the Academy has previously favored unexpected outcomes.

The potential for Byrne to win could be influenced by several factors. Recent criticism of Buckley’s new film, The Bride!, may impact her momentum, echoing the past scenario when Eddie Murphy‘s film Norbit affected his chances in 2007. If voters decide to pivot after a series of wins for Buckley, it could open the door for Byrne.

Should Byrne claim the Oscar, it would mark a significant moment in Oscar history, as it would also be one of the rare occasions where the evening’s host, Conan O’Brien, appears in a winning film. O’Brien has expressed his excitement about the possibility and humorously stated, “I have been practicing back-flips and, with the help of my surgical team, I am ready to go should the occasion arise,” as reported by The New York Times.

As the Oscar night approaches on March 15, 2026, the anticipation surrounding the Best Actress category continues to build. Viewers can catch the Vanity Fair Oscar Party livestream, hosted by Quenlin Blackwell, Jake Shane, and Brittany Broski, directly after the Academy Awards.

In summary, while Jessie Buckley leads the race, Rose Byrne has emerged as a formidable contender who could potentially turn the tide, making the Best Actress category one to watch closely this awards season.